TWC Session 10

Brief overview:

TOMORROW BELONGS TO THE PEOPLE WHO PREPARE FOR IT TODAY – African Proverb

More people are moving from rural to urban areas & there will be drastic change in global demographics, and it will lead to a series of issues that require us to come up with innovations to mitigate such issues. There will be a growing demand for healthcare, mobility, safety security, water & energy. A video by Siemens showed how they are committed to look into the future and map out plans to innovate to meet the demands in those different issues. However it is discussed that openness is a double-edged sword. Siemen could invite feedback and collaboration by publishing their plans and strategy to the public, but could lead to sabotage or imitation by competitors. However from a consumer’s point of view, both ways is great for us. But we have to think of social implication of the new technologies. We have to assess how will it impact people and society? Where is it likely to take us? Is it prime time to introduce such technology?

Some drivers for Technology Assessment and Forecasting

– Exponential growth in the range of new technologies with potential world changing significance

-The need to gain an understanding of what kinds of changes a new technology might bring – social, economic, ethical/legal, environment etc.

-The need to prioritize our decisions and considerations as to when to invest in R&D of new innovations.

-The need to prioritize, given limited resources, our decision as to when to implement new innovations and technologies. (in developing countries) Are we in the position/ Do we have the resources to invest?

Interesting observations:

– Future technology and the Net 50 years Megatrends

Virtual Reality / Augmented Reality / Education / Cloud Computing / Geo Based Location Services / Bionic / Robotic / DNA (Genomic) / Nano robots / Energy / Exoplanet

– 6 Key trends of the future- Fast, Urban, Tribal (new tribes of interests and commonality), Universal, Radical, Ethical.

– Discussed several methodologies to generate foresights, which include, brainstorming, environment scanning, delphi approach, expert panels, essays, literature review, surveys, trend extrapolation, cross-analysis etc.

-Common uses for foresight output. Common applications are policy recommendations, analysis of trends and drivers, scenarios forecast etc.

The seeds of the future are already planted today.

Key Takeaway Points

Sahana’s presentation about this article illustrating the observing the trends of technology. It is more important to predict “when” rather than what. An example brought up was the DVD that went through stages like Critical Price, critical mass, commoditization. Understanding innovation trends earlier will save resources, money and time for us to grab opportunities as they come.

Yuan Quan brought up an example of the introduction of a technology (suicide seeds) without good assessment of the impact such technology will bring. The social result was devastating and far-reaching.

Rating: 8/10